The Dord of Darien

Musings from the Mayor of the Internet

Dammit

Two years in a row I have to apologise to the BBWAA. Somehow, Emperor Felix Hernandez won a Cy Young even though he went 13 – 12 on the season. After Greinke last year… my little baseball journalists are finally growing up! It brings tears to my eyes, it does.

So let’s get this out of the way up front: Hernandez was probably the right choice, but it’s a bit difficult to tell, since, in baseball, there is defense, and we still don’t have a great handle on how to calculate defensive value. That means that BR and Fangraphs calculate pitching value differently, also, since they’re accounting for defense differently. Also it means my Gold Glove posts are like twelve stories high and made of radiation, but I guess you already knew that.

BR calculates pitching WAR attempting to neutralise for the team’s defense, and they declare Darth Felix, Sith Master of the American League, to be the best, with a nifty 6.0 WAR. Instead of going that route, Fangraphs builds pitching WAR from peripherals (K, BB, HR), thereby losing some information, but also not adding in any contamination from the team’s defense. They have Felix at 6.2, which is, obviously, better than 6.0. But not the best — Verlander’s at 6.3, and Cliff Lee is at 7.2. BR says 4.2 and 4.3, respectively. Felix is awesome either way you calculate WAR, which I appreciate. So there’s that.

But we can look deeper. Here are the top five vote getters, and, just to warn you, it’s a really weird selection:

Felix Hernandez (249.2 IP, 174 ERA+, 1.057 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.04 FIP, 6.0/6.2 WAR)
David Price (208.2 IP, 145 ERA+, 1.193 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.42 FIP, 5.3/4.3 WAR)
CC Sabathia (237.2 IP, 134 ERA+, 1.191 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.54 FIP, 5.4/5.1 WAR)
Jon Lester (208.0 IP, 134 ERA+, 1.202 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.13 FIP, 5.0/5.6 WAR)
Jered Weaver (224.1 IP, 135 ERA+, 1.074 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.06 FIP, 5.4/5.9 WAR)

Hernandez is pretty clearly the best of the group. So it’s a cinch, yeah? Yeah. Glad we cleared that — wait, what? You mean there are no fewer than two pitchers who were better than those other four dudes, but didn’t place? No fooling? Wait a second… we talked about this earlier, didn’t we?

Cliff Lee (212.1 IP, 130 ERA+, 1.003 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 0.8 BB/9 (!), 0.7 HR/9, 2.58 FIP, 4.3/7.1 WAR)
Justin Verlander (224.1 IP, 124 ERA+, 1.163 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.97 FIP, 4.2/6.3 WAR)

Neither of them got any first-place votes. Neither of them finished in the top five. So at least I still get to call you guys stupids a little bit!

Now let’s check the NL voting. There were basically three contenders:

Roy Halladay (250.2 IP, 165 ERA+, 1.041 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.01 FIP, 6.9/6.6 WAR)
Adam Wainwright (230.1 IP, 161 ERA+, 1.051 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.86 FIP, 5.7/6.1 WAR)
Ubaldo Jimenez (221.2 IP, 161 ERA+, 1.155 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 7.1/6.3 WAR)

Now that’s what I call a tight field! Pathos! Drama! Now check this out:

Josh Johnson (183.2 IP, 182 ERA+, 1.105 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.41 FIP, 6.4/6.3 WAR)

The BBWAA can thank Johnson’s late-season injury for getting them off the hook. They were voting the damn thing to Halladay regardless, since ORMG HE WON 21 GAMEZZ!!! and he pitched a perfecto, but if Johnson had pitched a full season he would be the easy best choice here. But he didn’t, and that just salvages the pick. So, again, I get to call them theoretical morons anyhow. It’s a good ending for me.


November 18th, 2010 Posted by | Baseball | no comments